Traiding Economics published statistics on the main indicators. It appears that the U.S. economy started to slowdown across the board. Based on the published context, sings suggest that the slowing economy might be a result of the policies of the current administration.

If direction of the process remains the same, it is only logical to conclude that eventually crude oil prices would be affected.

United States GDP Growth Rate  Forecast 2016-2020

GDP Growth Rate in the United States is expected to be 2.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Growth Rate in the United States to stand at 2.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 2.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

US GDP

US GDP1

United States GDP Growth Rate Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of United States GDP Growth Rate using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for – United States GDP Growth Rate – was last predicted on Monday, April 24, 2017.

United States Net International Investment Position  2006-2017

External Debt in the United States decreased to -8109652 USD Million in the fourth quarter of 2016 from -7781138 USD Million in the third quarter of 2016. External Debt in the United States averaged -4212428.43 USD Million from 2006 until 2016, reaching an all time high of -1232107 USD Million in the third quarter of 2007 and a record low of -8109652 USD Million in the fourth quarter of 2016.

US Debt

In the United States, Net International Investment Position is the difference between a country’s external financial assets and liabilities. This page provides – United States Net International Investment Position – actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United States Net International Investment Position – actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases – was last updated on April of 2017.

US II

United States ISM Non Manufacturing PMI  

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI index for the United States fell to 55.2 in March of 2017 after reaching a 16-month high of 57.6 in February and below market expectations of 57. It is the lowest reading since October of 2016 as production, new orders, employment and inventories slowed and inventories contracted. ISM Manufacturing PMI in the United States is reported by the Institute for Supply Management.

USSS

US Services Sector Growth At 5-Month Low: ISM

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI index for the United States fell to 55.2 in March of 2017 after reaching a 16-month high of 57.6 in February and below market expectations of 57. It is the lowest reading since October of 2016 as production, new orders , employment and inventories slowed and inventories contracted.

Decreases were seen in business activity (-4.7 to 58.9), new orders (-2.3 to 58.9), employment (-3.6 to 51.6), inventories (-3.5 to 48.5) and backlog of orders (-1 to 53). Prices also fell (-4.2 to 53.5). In contrast, improvements were seen in supplier deliveries (1 to 51.5), new export orders (5.5 to 62.5) and imports (5.5 to 56.5)
The 15 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in March are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; and Public Administration. The three industries reporting contraction in March are: Information; Educational Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

The majority of respondents’ comments indicate a positive outlook on business conditions and the overall economy. There were several comments about the uncertainty of future government policies on health care, trade and immigration, and the potential impact on business.

United States Non Farm Payrolls  1939-2017 

Non farm payrolls in the United States increased by 98 thousand in March of 2017, below a downwardly revised 219 thousand in February and compared to market expectations of 180 thousand. It is the lowest payroll number since May last year as retailers cut jobs while employment went up in professional, business services and mining. Non Farm Payrolls in the United States averaged 125.49 Thousand from 1939 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 1115 Thousand in September of 1983 and a record low of -834 Thousand in October of 1949.

USFP

US Economy Adds 98K Jobs In March, Lowest In 10 Months

Non farm payrolls in the United States increased by 98 thousand in March of 2017, below a downwardly revised 219 thousand in February and compared to market expectations of 180 thousand. It is the lowest payroll number since May last year as retailers cut jobs while employment went up in professional, business services and mining.

Employment in professional and business services rose by 56,000, about in line with the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. Over the month, job gains occurred in services to buildings and dwellings (+17,000) and in architectural and engineering services (+7,000).
 
Mining added 11,000 jobs in March, with most of the gain occurring in support activities for mining (+9,000). Mining employment has risen by 35,000 since reaching a recent low in October 2016.
 
In March, employment continued to trend up in health care (+14,000), with job gains in hospitals (+9,000) and outpatient care centers (+6,000). In the first 3 months of this year, health care added an average of 20,000 jobs per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 32,000 in 2016. 
 
Employment in financial activities continued to trend up in March (+9,000) and has increased by 178,000 over the past 12 months.
 
Construction employment changed little in March (+6,000), following a gain of 59,000 in February. Employment in construction has been trending up since late last summer, largely among specialty trade contractors and in residential building. 
 
Retail trade lost 30,000 jobs in March. Employment in general merchandise stores declined by 35,000 in March and has declined by 89,000 since a recent high in October 2016.
 
Employment in other major industries, including manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, leisure and hospitality, and government, showed little or no change over the month.
 
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.3 hours in March. In manufacturing, the workweek edged down by 0.2 hour to 40.6 hours, and overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 3.2 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 33.5 hours. 
 
In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 5 cents to $26.14, following a 7-cent increase in February. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 68 cents, or 2.7 percent. In March, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $21.90. 

United States Housing Starts  1959-2017 

Housing starts in the United States slumped 6.8 percent from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1215 thousand in March of 2017, following an upwardly revised 1303 thousand in the previous month and much worse than market expectations of a 3 percent drop. It is the lowest rate in four months, led by drops in the Midwest. Housing Starts in the United States averaged 1437.99 Thousand from 1959 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 2494 Thousand in January of 1972 and a record low of 478 Thousand in April of 2009.

USH

Housing starts in the United States slumped 6.8 percent from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1215 thousand in March of 2017, following an upwardly revised 1303 thousand in the previous month and much worse than market expectations of a 3 percent drop. It is the lowest rate in four months, led by drops in the Midwest.

Single-family housing starts, the largest segment of the market shrank 6.2 percent to 821 thousand. In addition, the volatile multi-family segment declined 6.1 percent to 385 thousand. Starts slumped in the Midwest (-16.2 percent to 155 thousand), the West (-16 percent to 284 thousand) and the South (-2.9 percent to 645 thousand) but rose 12.9 percent in the Northeast (to 131 thousand). 
Building permits increased 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1260 thousand, more than market expectations of a 2.8 percent rise. Building permits for multi-family units jumped 18.3 percent to 401 thousand while single-family authorizations dropped 1.1 percent to 823 thousand. Permits went up in the West (16.7 percent to 315 thousand), the Northeast (15.5 percent to 134 thoudand) and the South (6 percent to 619 thousand) while fell 22 percent to 192 thousand in the Midwest.  

United States Manufacturing PMI  2012-2017

The Markit US Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.8 in April of 2017 from 53.3 in March and well below market expectations of 53.5, flash figures showed. It is the lowest reading since September of 2016, indicating another slowdown in manufacturing growth from the near two-year high in January, mainly due slower expansion in output and new orders. Manufacturing PMI in the United States averaged 53.65 from 2012 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 57.90 in August of 2014 and a record low of 50.70 in May of 2016. Manufacturing PMI in the United States is reported by Markit Economics.

USMA

The Markit US Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.8 in April of 2017 from 53.3 in March and well below market expectations of 53.5, flash figures showed. It is the lowest reading since September of 2016, indicating another slowdown in manufacturing growth from the near two-year high in January, mainly due slower expansion in output and new orders.

The main positive development was a slight rebound in manufacturing job creation from the seven-month low seen during March. 
Manufacturers were more cautious in terms of their pre-production inventories in April. The decline in stocks of inputs ended a six-month period of sustained inventory building. 
 
April data signalled a sharp and  accelerated rise in average cost burdens across the manufacturing sector. The rate of input cost inflation was the fastest since December 2013, which survey respondents linked to rising commodity prices (particularly metals). Meanwhile, pressure on margins from higher input costs contributed to the strongest increase in factory gate charges for almost two-and-a-half years.
 
Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:
 
“The PMI data suggest the US economy lost further momentum at the start of the second quarter. The surveys are signalling a GDP growth rate of 1.1% after 1.7% in the first quarter. “The vast services economy saw the weakest monthly expansion for seven months and the manufacturing sector showed signs of growth slowing further from the two-year high seen at the start of the year, despite export orders lifting higher. “The labour market also continued to soften. The surveys signalled a marked step-down in the pace of hiring in March which has continued into April. The latest survey data are consistent with only around 100,000 non-farm payroll growth. “The survey responses indicate that some froth has come off the economy since the post-election bounce seen at the end of last year. However, with inflows of new business picking up slightly in April and business optimism about the year ahead also brightening, there’s good reason to believe that growth could revive again in coming months.” 
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