In addition to my views on the importance to incorporate the impact of the climate change into the oil and gas industry forecast , WWF indicates that there will be significant impact on investor returns, regardless of which climate scenario transpires. For instance, even under the most conservative climate mitigation scenario, the coal sub-sector is expected to be impacted -1.2% per annum and up to -4.9% per annum.
On the flip side, renewables are expected to benefit, particularly in the high climate mitigation scenario of up to 3.5% per annum – in terms of impact on investor returns. These are not numbers that any serious investor can ignore and are based on the next 35 years.
Although, the reports covers a period of the next 35 years, it is obvious that the fist signs would start to cause negative impact on the global economy much earlier. It is also clear that the impact is likely to result in a lower or insignificant economic growth before 2035.
This is different from the assessment made by BP in its 2017 Energy Outlook as it questions BP’s view that global energy demand is expected to be driven by rising prosperity.